The forceful return of President Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2027 General Election political matrix means the Western Kenya vote will now be very crucial for President William Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza coalition.
Political pundits argue that it will be extremely difficult for Ruto to get any meaningful support in the Mt Kenya and South Eastern region, where Uhuru and his newly appointed Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition party leader enjoy a lot of influence.
Coupled with the support of the first rising popularity of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) by Rigathi Gachagua in Mt Kenya and its diaspora, means Ruto will want to capture the Rift Valley, Nyanza, and Western votes and hopefully share with the opposition in battle grounds like larger Kisii and coast regions.
"Ruto's campaign team, coordinated by Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka and Kakamega deputy governor Ayub Savula, will have to work extra hard now to ensure the president gets over 70 percent of the vote in the western region," says analyst George Masika of Masinde Muliro University.
Savula, who was officially received by President Ruto at State House during a national aspirants meeting, defected to UDA from DAP-K and told the meeting that they intend to consolidate 2.6 million votes for the president.
That will be a tall order indeed, given the rising influence of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and his Tawe movement, which Savula also said they will make sure is made irrelevant before the 2027 elections.
"UDA is going to be a force in western. I will soon declare interest in a UDA national seat during the party's NDC as we prepare for 2032, but for now, we will support Ruto and other leaders in the region like Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula," said Savula.
The Sunday Standard has also established that leaders from the region are seeking assurances that one of their own could be President William Ruto’s running mate.
The debate over Western Kenya’s political leverage has been reignited by ongoing negotiations surrounding a proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), led by Oburu Oginga.
While the talks are framed around power-sharing and governance, they have raised questions about how much political space remains for other regions, particularly Western Kenya, to negotiate for top executive positions.
ODM has been categorical that it is not seeking either the presidency or the deputy presidency in the talks. Speaking recently during a joint public engagement with President Ruto at Jomo Kenyatta Stadium, Oburu said the party’s priority is policy influence, development, and economic inclusion rather than occupying the country’s two most powerful offices.
In remarks widely interpreted as easing pressure on Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Oginga stated that ODM would not pursue the deputy president’s seat.
However, any formal pact between UDA and ODM could unsettle senior Western Kenya leaders, including Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, both of whom have been central figures in the Kenya Kwanza administration since 2022.
With more than 2.6 million registered voters, Western Kenya remains a crucial battleground, and competition for its support is expected to intensify as 2027 approaches.
Yet lingering questions remain about whether the region still has sufficient bargaining power, particularly after ODM’s rapprochement with President Ruto.
Political analysts argue that President Ruto is keen to consolidate his support in Western Kenya, especially following his fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, which strained his relationship with parts of the Mount Kenya region.
Bringing ODM closer into government is widely viewed as a strategic move to stabilise his support base while reshaping the 2027 electoral map.
This shifting terrain has sparked debate over Ruto’s choice of a running mate. While Deputy President Kindiki remains in office, some observers speculate that Ruto could once again look to Mount Kenya, as he did in 2022, to shore up support.
Others believe that if Ruto succeeds in stabilising Mount Kenya through development tours and political outreach, he may consider an alternative region, such as Western Kenya, to broaden his coalition.
The government’s recent rollout of development projects across Western Kenya has reinforced perceptions that the region is firmly on Ruto’s radar.
Some leaders argue that their push for the deputy presidency is a fair exchange for delivering votes in the next election.
Among the names frequently mentioned as potential running mates are Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, and Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya.
A section of leaders insists that Western Kenya holds the key to determining the outcome of the 2027 presidential race.
Vihiga Woman Representative Beatrice Adagala says the demand for the deputy presidency has become both a symbol of recognition and a test of whether the region truly matters in national decision-making.
“Our son Mudavadi has the experience, having served as Vice President and now as Prime Cabinet Secretary. He is capable and deserving,” she said.
Malava MP David Ndakwa views the deputy presidency as a strategic stepping stone toward the presidency in 2032.
“2027 is about deputising; 2032 is about leading,” Ndakwa said, arguing that unity is critical if the Mulembe nation is to translate numbers into power.
In Kakamega County, several leaders have rallied behind Oparanya.
MPs Christopher Aseka (Khwisero), Emmanuel Wangwe (Navakholo), Fred Ikana (Shinyalu), and Kakamega Woman Representative Elsie Muhanda have praised his leadership and development record, urging him to seek a national executive role.
“Our Cabinet Secretary Oparanya should aim for a national seat, including deputising President Ruto in 2027,” Aseka said. “Other regions have groomed leaders for national office. The Mulembe nation deserves the same opportunity.”
Still, not all analysts are convinced Western Kenya retains the leverage to dictate terms. Lawyer and political analyst Moses Ombayo cautions that evolving pre-election alliances could dramatically alter President Ruto’s calculations.
“Given that ODM has stepped aside from contesting the post, Mount Kenya appears well-positioned unless political dynamics change. Western Kenya may have lost ground and should avoid overplaying its hand,” says Ombayo.
Ombayo notes that while Mudavadi and Wetang’ula were instrumental in delivering Western Kenya to Ruto in 2022, coalition politics rewards party strength, and ODM’s numerical advantage could overshadow regional demands.
Internal divisions further complicate matters, with leaders such as DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, Mumias East MP Peter Salasya, and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah all signalling presidential ambitions.
