What we know on renewed fighting in north Ethiopia

With reports of heavy weapons fire and drone strikes in northern Ethiopia over the past week, there are fears the region is returning to the devastating warfare it experienced between 2020 and 2022.

AFP looks at the latest flaring of violence in Ethiopia's Tigray and Afar regions, which threatens to upend a fragile peace deal.

What happened?

Authorities in Afar in northeastern Ethiopia on Wednesday accused armed forces from neighbouring Tigray of entering their territory, seizing control of six villages and shelling civilians with mortars.

A humanitarian source in Afar, who requested anonymity, confirmed the attack, saying it had led to some 18,000 people being displaced, mostly women and children, with little hope of relief assistance.

The authorities of Tigray rejected the accusations, calling them "baseless", and instead claim to be victims of multiple attacks in recent months originating from Afar.

A source close to the Tigrayan authorities told AFP these attacks have been carried out by a splinter group called the Tigray Peace Force, based in Afar and linked to a former Tigrayan leader, Getachew Reda.

Getachew broke ranks with his former allies in Tigray and is now a minister in the federal government in the capital Addis Ababa.

He did not respond to a request for comment from AFP.

Strikes by federal authorities?

The Tigrayan authorities also accused the Ethiopian government in a statement on Friday of carrying out drone strikes that "caused casualties among members of the Tigray forces and local residents".

A Tigray official later specified to AFP that these casualties did not happen on Tigrayan territory, but rather targeted their forces stationed in Afar, where they are accused of having conducted incursions.

At least 16 people were killed and 22 others wounded in the strikes on Tigrayan positions, the source said.

AFP was unable to independently verify these claims. Federal authorities did not respond to requests for comment.

The humanitarian source confirmed the drone strikes but did not provide a casualty count.

Drones were used extensively by federal forces during the civil war with Tigray from 2020 to 2022, a conflict that claimed some 600,000 lives, according to the African Union.

At the peak of the fighting, the federal government used drones to push back a Tigrayan advance that had come within 200 kilometres (125 miles) of the capital.

The conflict spilt over into Afar, whose troops supported the federal government.

What remains of the peace agreement?

The war ended with the Pretoria Agreement signed in November 2022.

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which effectively runs the region, said the deal is in "grave danger" after the past week's attacks, and called on the international community "to urgently stop this war provocation by the Ethiopian government".

Relations had already been strained for months, with the federal government banning the TPLF from political activity in May, and accusing Tigrayan authorities of forging ties with neighbouring Eritrea with a view to renewed war.

"We are seeing a clear trajectory towards reigniting a bigger war in the Horn of Africa, involving Ethiopia, Tigray and Eritrea," said Kjetil Tronvoll, professor at Oslo New University College and a specialist on the region.