ODM's ideological stand cannot be dictated by individuals' dreams

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is courting implosion as members differ over which direction the party should take going forward. In 2024, party leader Raila Odinga, signed an agreement with the Kenya Kwanza government that obligated ODM to work with the government until 2027.

Debate on the future of ODM vis a vis the agreement started while Raila was still alive. ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, who is unequivocal about what ODM must do based on Raila's last recorded instructions, triggered the debate that now tests the party's unity.

Contrarians Treasury CS John Mbadi, Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga insist the arrangement with the government stretches to 2032.

To give legitimacy to this stand, Mbadi claims Raila has appeared to him in dreams several times urging him to make sure ODM remains in government. Such abstract self-serving musings would have been laughable if they were not so pitiful.

Winnie Odinga, who was with her father until his death, has warned the contrarians to tread carefully, stating categorically that ODM will independently chart its way forward. This has so irked Mbadi, he accused Winnie of betraying her father in death. To be fair, however, this is stretching fantasy too far.

The contest is now down to Sifuna's stand and Winnie's truth against Mbadi’s dreams. It's not hard to finger Mbadi’s motivation, which is self-preservation. Mbadi and Opiyo have tasted the CS seat and want to continue enjoying the trappings of power. The duo forgets they have no political capital without Baba, which perhaps explains the panic they get into whenever Sifuna avers ODM and UDA will part ways in 2027.

The thought of disembarking from the gravy-train certainly gives these gentlemen migraines. Lost on them is the fact that political fluidity, expediency and exigencies cannot guarantee them their desires. ODM could back UDA in 2027 yet come up with completely new faces for the CS slots, which are not a preserve of Luo Nyanza.

One wonders, what gives the duo such a sense of entitlement? The same question should be asked of Wanga who dreams of becoming Ruto’s running mate in 2027. The earlier she stops entertaining this idea the better. She cannot deliver the Luo block to Ruto 

Wandayi recently averred that if given a choice between ODM and sticking with Ruto, he would gladly pick the latter. That's admirable for he is being principled, but soon enough, his wish will be granted.

The recent sermon by Bishop Charles Ongi'njo, who ridiculed the two Cabinet appointees from Luo Nyanza could very well be the trigger of fatal political mudslides in the region.

There is a silent rebellion in Nyanza where even the clergy are coming out boldly to question the broad-based arrangement, and even inflaming passions by calling the Luo 'cheap'.

ODM is a national party, with tentacles across Kenya, but its head resides with the Odingas. Public pronouncements by Ruth Odinga, new ODM party leader Oburu Odinga and Winnie Odinga, leave no doubt who is calling the shots.

An assertive Winnie, in a manner that truly evokes memories of Baba, recently asked the faction deemed ready to ‘mortgage’ ODM for individual gain to hold their horses.

"We will never be sorry for being inconvenient. ODM was not born in a boardroom or made in a bedroom. Its future will not be discussed as pillow talk." Winnie’s words go beyond the obvious and call for deeper interrogation.

While the pact that birthed the broad-based government gave us respite from political turmoil, in reality, it was more like covering a suppurating wound with a clean bandage without treating the infection.

The wound is still festering, evidenced by the grumbling in the corridors of social media whose labyrinths give cover to critics apprehensive of ‘Subaru visits’ in the dead of the night.

ODM must soldier on. The Odinga's are seemingly not in favour of a broad-based arrangement post 2027. Immediately after becoming party leader, Oburu adapted Sifuna’s position. Ruth and Winnie insist ODM must field a candidate in 2027.