What COP means and why it matters

COP30 opened this week in Belém, Brazil, with nearly 200 countries gathering to debate how to slow dangerous global warming. For two weeks, the city known as the “gateway to the Amazon” will host crucial talks on fossil fuels, forests, and climate finance.

The mood is tense. Last year was the hottest on record, and a decade of heat waves, droughts, fires, and floods has left no region untouched. Delegates have arrived with one shared reality — time is running out.

The “COP,” or Conference of the Parties, began after the 1992 UN climate treaty, when more than 150 countries agreed to limit planet-heating pollution.

The first COP took place in Berlin in 1995, and every year since, members have met to assess progress and strengthen commitments.

A turning point came in 2015 at COP21 in Paris, when nearly all nations signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to limit global warming to well below 2°C — preferably 1.5°C — above pre-industrial levels.

That deal set a goal but not a plan. To make it real, countries agreed to submit new national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), every five years. These plans outline how each nation will cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts.

COP30 marks a critical update cycle. Countries were meant to file their 2035 NDCs by February 2025, but more than 90 percent missed the deadline. By the time leaders arrived in Belém, most had finally submitted — though major emitters like India still lagged behind.

The choice of Brazil as host carries both symbolism and strain. Belém sits on the edge of the Amazon, a forest vital for absorbing carbon and regulating rainfall. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wants to make this the “Amazon COP,” launching a $125 billion plan to pay countries to protect forests.

Yet controversy dogs the summit. Hotels in Belém are overwhelmed, prices have soared, and some small delegations say they are priced out.

Environmentalists accuse Brazil of hypocrisy for approving new oil exploration near the Amazon River even as it champions conservation.

Lula defends the move, saying: “I never claimed to be an environmental leader. It would be irresponsible for Brazil to quit oil.”

Finance and fossil fuels dominate the negotiations. Developing countries want wealthy nations to honor past promises and unlock new, debt-free funds for adaptation. The biggest reference point is the new Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, released just before COP30. It outlines how to scale global climate finance to at least $1.3 trillion a year by 2035 — far beyond the $300 billion floor agreed last year at COP29 in Azerbaijan.

The roadmap calls for five urgent actions: more grants, fairer debt treatment, lower-cost private capital, stronger national institutions, and reform of global finance rules. Critics say it lacks teeth and timelines, while supporters see it as a practical bridge between ambition and delivery.

At the heart of every COP remains the Paris temperature goal. The UN now warns that the world is almost certain to overshoot 1.5°C in the near term. Current policies would drive roughly 2.8°C of warming by century’s end. Even if all new pledges are met, the world is still headed for about 2.4°C. Scientists caution that such levels could trigger irreversible loss of coral reefs, melting of polar ice sheets, and severe food insecurity.

The controversies go beyond climate science — they touch geopolitics. Global leadership is fractured. The United States, historically the largest carbon polluter, has no official delegation at COP30. President Donald Trump, who withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement in January 2025, has dismissed climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.” His absence leaves a gap in both diplomacy and finance.

Some fear other nations will use that void to lower ambition, while others believe the talks could move faster without Washington’s obstruction. California Governor Gavin Newsom attended independently, urging the world not to give up. “Donald Trump is doubling down on stupid,” he said during a side event before flying to the Amazon.

Amid the political wrangling, one quiet milestone offers hope. In early 2025, renewable energy — mainly solar — overtook coal as the world’s top source of electricity. That shift signals structural change, even as global politics stalls. Still, negotiators in Belém must turn that momentum into binding action.

They are expected to debate how to integrate the $1.3 trillion Roadmap into the formal UN process, increase adaptation finance, and chart the next decade’s climate work programme. Reaching consensus will be hard, as every decision requires unanimous approval. Yet expectations remain high that COP30 can lay the financial and political foundation for the post-2030 climate decade.

For Africa — and Kenya in particular — the stakes are deeply personal. Kenya emits less than 0.2 percent of global greenhouse gases but bears the brunt of rising costs: floods, droughts, and crop losses. Its NDC targets a 35 percent emissions cut and enhanced resilience by 2035, but 87 percent of the needed finance must come from abroad.

Kenyan delegates in Belém are pushing for direct, predictable funding for counties and community projects, not more loans. They point to the country’s 90 percent renewable electricity as proof that ambition is not the problem — access to finance is.

Across the developing world, similar demands echo. African nations want half of all new climate finance earmarked for adaptation and better access to the Loss and Damage Fund. They are calling for grants, not debt, and reform of institutions that make borrowing too costly.

COP30 matters because it tests whether the world can match promises with real money and resolve. The outcome will shape how quickly countries move away from fossil fuels, how fairly resources are shared, and whether communities like those in northern Kenya can prepare for the next drought instead of merely surviving the last one.

From Belém’s crowded halls to flooded villages and scorched fields, the question remains the same: will global leaders act — or will another year of record heat pass with promises unfulfilled?