No money, no merry: Majority of Kenyans say they won't celebrate

An opinion poll has painted a disturbing picture of Kenya grappling with economic stress, dampening the spirit of the festive season.

The new nationwide survey by Infotrak Research and Consulting reveals that Kenyans overwhelmingly feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The poll, conducted in December, sampled 1,000 respondents proportionally distributed across all 47 counties, shows that 42 per cent of citizens believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while a paltry 21 per cent feel it is on the right track.

A significant 32 per cent, which translates to one in three Kenyans, say the nation is headed neither in the right nor wrong direction.

The poll’s most damning findings relate to the festive season which has traditionally been a time of joy, traveling and family reunions.

The 2025 season shapes up as one of the most depressing in recent memory, directly influencing the economic hardships said by those who think the country is heading in the wrong direction.

A staggering 55 per cent of Kenyans do not intend to celebrate as in the past.

The overpowering reason is lack of money. Among those not celebrating as usual, a crushing 78 per cent say finances are the primary factor.

Other reasons like work commitments are at six per cent, travel difficulties at three per cent, or simply not being in the mood at four per cent pale in comparison.

The festive season, for many Kenyans, has become a luxury they cannot afford.

The pain distributes unevenly. It bites hardest in Nairobi and Western regions, both reporting 87 per cent of those not celebrating citing financial inability, and is the highest in the nation.

Nairobi, the economic hub, and Western, feel the hardest pinch.

The middle-aged group, 46-55 years, burdened by responsibilities for both children and aging parents, reports an 86 per cent rate of financial inability. They occupy the phase of life where economic shocks hit most acutely.

Prof Samuel Nyandemo, and economist and senior lecturer at the University of Nairobi, says that the poll by Infotrak reflects how Kenyans are doing. He dismisses counter arguments by the government that economy is doing well.

He says the Christmas season provides a snippet of how Kenyans are doing, noting that most have not travelled home for the festivities because they cannot afford.

“The cost of living has gone up, disposable income has shrunk and purchasing power has been compromised implying that the economy is not going in the right direction,” he told The Standard.

He says while the argument by the government that prices have come down, which is supported by selective data, the cost of living is still high.

The taxes introduced by the Kenya Kwanza administration are hurting Kenyans, considering the prevailing economic challenges, he says.

For the minority 45 per cent who will celebrate, 53 per cent say they will be spending time with family while church attendance or prayer takes 31 per cent.

These low-cost activities, according to the poll, shows that spirituality abounds when material celebration is not readily available.

The proportion focusing on family time dropped sharply from 63 per cent in 2024 to 53 per cent in 2025. This could indicate that even gathering family grows logistically or financially challenging for some.

Regionally, many areas differ. The Coast leads the nation in plans for “partying or drinking” at 14 per cent, reflecting its tourist and leisure culture.

Nairobi residents are most likely to “go for a holiday” at 21 per cent, though this likely includes trips to rural homes, as further data shows.

Eastern and Nyanza show the highest propensity for “church or prayer” at 40 per cent and 39 per cent respectively, underscoring faith’s centrality. Rift Valley and Central emerge most home-bound, with the highest percentages planning to stay at their own homes.

For the 451 respondents who will celebrate, location details clarify 41 per cent at their own home; 28 per cent at a relative’s home; 12 per cent upcountry; eight per cent in their local neighbourhood. Only two per cent plan a recreational facility.

The central question respondents were asked is: “Overall, would you say that the country is going in the right or in the wrong direction?”

The disillusioned majority stands at 42 per cent, which is nearly half of Kenyans convinced the nation is on the wrong path.

This is a huge leap from another poll conducted in September 2024, when 73 per cent felt the country was headed in the wrong direction. That 31-percentage-point drop in negativity emerges as the most dramatic shift in the poll.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents selected “neither a right nor wrong direction.” The poll suggests that the ambivalent Kenyans neither endorse the status quo nor condemn it but have adopted a “wait-and-see” attitude.

The happy minority who believes the country is headed the right direction are just 21 per cent. Their number has grown from 15 per cent in September 2024.

Beneath these national numbers lie regional and demographic divisions that underscore Kenya’s complex political and economic landscape.

North Eastern Kenya stands out as the most optimistic region, with 42 per cent of its residents believing the country is on the right track. This could be from perceived focused government attention or infrastructural development in the region.

On the opposite end lies Central Kenya, the headquarters of dissatisfaction. In the Mount Kenya region, 65 per cent of respondents, which is almost two-thirds of the entire region, think the country is in the wrong direction, the highest negative sentiment in the nation.

A small gender gap colours the national outlook. Men, at 23 per cent, and women, at 18 per cent, tend to view the country’s direction positively. The data also intersects outlook with tradition, revealing that during the festive season, women (37 per cent) prioritise church attendance more than men (27 per cent), indicating role of faith, particularly among women, as a social anchor.

The youth, aged 18-26, report the lowest level of “wrong direction” sentiment at 38 per cent among all age groups. However, they also record the highest level of “don’t know” responses at 12 per cent. This combination is probably due to the perceived Gen Z political detachment or disengagement about the nation’s political or economic trajectory.

When respondents were questioned about their views, the main reasons emerged with economic reason topping for the pessimists, and governance issues for the optimists.

The 42 per cent who think Kenya is heading in the wrong direction gave reason as the daily struggles. High cost of living and economic hardships top the list at 67 per cent, as their main reason.

Dr Nyandemo says the country being riddled with debt, now above Sh12 trillion, shows how much the government struggles to keep the economy afloat.

“It means out of Sh100, just Sh30 is what is available for development and a bloated wage bill. That indicates that we are living beyond our means,” he says.

Nearly seven in ten who said the country was heading in the wrong direction point to the spike in prices, stagnant wages, and the struggle to make ends meet.

Unemployment follows at 33 per cent, the lack of jobs especially for the ballooning youth population remaining a critical point. Poor governance or politics claims 27 per cent, with a quarter pointing to dissatisfaction with political leadership, corruption, or the general state of governance. Education sector challenges weigh in at 26 per cent, concerns over teachers’ strikes, funding, and quality burdening families.

Emerging concerns include stalled development or infrastructure at 25 per cent, suggesting impatience with unfulfilled promises. Health sector failures account for 12 per cent, while human rights violations stand at eight per cent, pointing to growing worries over freedoms enshrined in the constitution.

For the 21 per cent who feel the country is headed in the right direction, the narrative shifts to government performance and projects. Government is doing well leads at 24 per cent, an endorsement of President Ruto's overall performance. Good infrastructure follows closely at 23 per cent, suggesting visible projects like roads, railways, digital infrastructure that impact perception positively for this segment.

General growth or stability is at 16 per cent. The data reveals two sides of Kenyans, with one feeling the pinching pain of economic hardships, and another applauding governmental action and physical development.

A deeper dive into the 549 respondents not celebrating reveals that the main reason is economic struggles. Lack of money dominates everywhere, peaking in Nairobi (90 per cent) and Western (88 per cent). Coast and Central also report figures above 85 per cent.

Interestingly, North Eastern—the most optimistic region about national direction—still has 78 per cent of its non-celebrants citing finances.

Demographics of disruption show financially-induced non-celebration highest among men (81 per cent) compared to women (75 per cent), suggesting men feel the pressure as primary breadwinners more acutely during such traditionally expensive periods.

By age, the 46-55 group leads at 86 per cent, followed by 36-45 at 82 per cent. Even the youth (18-26), slightly lower at 73 per cent, remain overwhelmingly constrained by finances.

[Additional reporting by Graham Kajilwa]