Severe drought looms as country stares at acute food crisis

Farmers in Kenya’s grain basket are staring at huge losses as maize fields go dry following a prolonged dry spell, a situation that is likely to cause a major food crisis.

Worst hit are the maize-producing counties of the North Rift, where no drop of rain has been recorded in several areas in the last one month.

The drought adds to two other major problems – fertiliser shortage and distribution hitches, and high operating costs following increasing fuel prices.

Normally, the vast fields of maize crop across Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nandi and parts of Elgeyo Marakwet and Bungoma counties would have been delightfully green and at the flowering stage. But the situation is different this year.

Withering maize crops are a common feature across several areas of the region, a spot check by The Standard reveals.

At the same time, the Meteorological department is delivering devastating news: that only light showers will be experienced from next week and that the dry spell is likely to extend to July and August ahead of heavy rains (El Niño) during the harvest period later in the year.

In a number of farms, maize stems appear as thin as onion leaves, and farmers are worried that even if the rains fall today and growth is regenerated, the harvest will remain the lowest in decades.

According to farmers and agronomists, maize yields are set to drop to as low as two bags per acre from more than 30 under normal weather conditions due to the drought.

In Moiben, Kibiwott Kwambai, who leased 20 acres of land to grow maize, has in the last week been looking up at the skies, hoping to spot any signs of rain, but each look has ended in sheer disappointment.

Yesterday, the skies were clear with no clouds and the sun was searing, further shattering hopes of a harvest in many areas.

“If it does not rain within hours from Tuesday, the entire crop will dry up. I recently applied top-dressing fertilizer. I spent Sh300,000 to lease the land and a similar amount on tilling, fertilizer and labour, and I was expecting a bumper harvest,” Kwambai said.

The maize-producing region last witnessed a drought of this year’s magnitude in 2009, and farmers recorded such huge losses that it became difficult for most of them to return to the farms to grow food the following year.

Social media has been awash with photos of wilting maize crops and farmers expressing frustration with the state of the weather.

Alex Kibet, a farmer in Kimoning, Uasin Gishu, said most farmers did not insure their crops and will only be left counting losses.

“Small-scale farmers are in fear because the maize crop looks like onion leaves,” said Kibet.

Benjamin Some of Chabarus planted 5.5 acres but the field is depressingly dry. Some said his crop m not be salvaged if it does not rain in the next one week.

“It has already affected the crop and I will not attain the expected harvest because it is completely drying up,” Some said.

Agronomist Ronald Koech described the current drought as devastating for maize farmers who practice rain-fed agriculture.

As of now, Koech observes, losses are at 60 per cent and, if the drought persists, farmers could harvest as little as two bags per acre.

“Maize planted two months ago is drying up and economic losses, which can go up to 100 per cent, are looming,” said Koech.

He added: “Millers will not get adequate maize to produce flour.”

Uasin Gishu and Elgeyo Marakwet Director of Meteorological Services Simon Cheptot said the dry season is likely to continue until August.

Cheptot said El Niño rains, which are expected in the last quarter of the year, are normally preceded by drought.

“The dry season is persistent at a time when maize farmers are expected to top-dress their crops for improved yields. We expect light rains from next week,” he said.

A 2024 report by the Kenya Institute of Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) indicated that the fertilizer subsidy programme, which lowered the cost of the input from nearly Sh7,000 per bag to Sh2,500, was buoyed by favourable weather conditions.

The government’s fertiliser subsidy also faced major hitches this season, conspiring with the increasing cost of fuel to reverse gains made in the sector.

A shortage of subsidized top-dressing fertiliser (Calcium Ammonium Nitrate) earlier this month caused long queues at the Eldoret and Kitale National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) depots and agitation among farmers who had expected to apply the crucial input on their maize fields by mid-last month.

NCPB resumed distribution of the top-dressing fertiliser two weeks ago but announced a premature end to the supply as farmers hoped for rain to fall so they could begin applying the input.

Kenya Farmers Association (KFA) chairman Kipkorir Menjo said the move to end the fertilizer subsidy when farmers are facing huge losses from the drought was shocking.

“How can the ministry rush to end the subsidy programme when a good number of farmers have not received the fertiliser?,” Menjo posed.

Trans Nzoia County Agriculture Executive Phanice Khatundi said over 50,000 acres of maize fields are already dry as the drought bites.

Khatundi said many farmers across Trans Nzoia, one of the highest maize-producing counties, were counting losses.

“More than 250,000 acres are under maize production in Trans Nzoia, and more than 20 per cent of the maize crop is already dry. This will result in the worst food crisis in many years,” Khatundi said.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya said the current situation will affect food security in the country since the area is one of the key producers of maize.

Kenya National Federation of Farmers (KNEFF) officials in the area, led by Tom Nyagechaga, said they had assessed the situation and described it as worse.

“Many farmers have been stressed by the prolonged dry spell that has caused devastating damage to their crops,” said Nyagechaga.

The official urged the national government to establish an insurance policy that can mitigate the losses.

“There is need for the national government to come up with a policy to protect farmers faced with such calamities,” he said.