Why troubled Ruto is not sleeping easy

Just as President William Ruto sought to co-opt ODM for the 2027 elections, Raila Odinga’s death changed the game entirely. He had courted the ODM leader, even bringing him and key allies into government, all with the 2027 General Election in mind. Raila’s passing on 15 October in India, however, has thrown a spanner in the works.

What should have been a celebration of ODM’s 20th anniversary instead became a reality check for President Ruto. Speaker after speaker struck a defiant tone, sending a clear message: ODM will not be dissolved, and any coalition will be on its terms.

For months, the question has been whether to merge the party with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), with the prospect of five years at the helm after 2027, or to retain ODM’s identity and field a presidential candidate in the elections.

Yesterday, as the party marked two decades of existence, Siaya Governor James Orengo, East Africa Legislative Assembly (EALA) MP Winnie Odinga, Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi, and Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna emerged as staunch defenders of what they perceive to be the identity and soul of Raila’s party.

ODM, they insist, has survived this far because of its fighting spirit of the party, one that has over the last twenty years been defined by its non-conformist and non-compromising nature.

Seemingly eager to take cue from where Raila left off, they are now leading the charge against mounting attempts by a section of their colleagues to assimilate ODM into the broad-based government post 2027, with recent remarks from the trio signifying the battles ahead.

“We want a government that is accountable and now, as we speak, I dare say, Ruto needs ODM, it’s not ODM that needs Ruto. Do you hear me? There are people in the party behaving as if ODM is the one that needs Ruto,” Orengo charged on Friday during the party’s 20th anniversary celebrations held in Mombasa county.

“It is Ruto that needs ODM. I am not afraid to say, I have nothing to fear but fear. I was very happy when Dr Oburu (Oginga) said ODM will not be swallowed.”

In sentiments lauded by Sifuna, he poured cold water on claims that ODM was incapable of producing a candidate to challenge Ruto, reiterating that the party had plenty of capable leaders.

“Tell me if, in 2027, you make Ruto the president, where does that leave ODM? I don’t know why this party is becoming a party of cowards,” Orengo stated.

Sifuna warned members against drinking the ‘assimilation cool aide’ availed by those with individual interests within the outfit.

“There are people claiming that within ODM no one can become President. I want to tell you if we rally behind any one of us, we shall win the elections. Let us go back to our roots.  Let us not be people who are begging what can be rightfully ours,” Sifuna said.

Their defense of the ideals of the party came after a similarly passionate warning by Winnie, who told of a sinister plot by some in the ODM to “sell the party at night”.

Pillow talk

“I have heard there are those who walk with us during the day and then try to sell our party at night. ODM was not born or made in a bedroom, so its future will not be discussed as pillow talk. ODM has been the heartbeat of the Kenyan people for 20 years, and it was born from protest and raised in resistance,” Winnie stated.

On the flip side, a faction commanded by ODM party chairperson and Homabay Governor Gladys Wanga, Deputy party leader and Kisii Governor Simba Arati and Cabinet Secretaries Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy) Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and John Mbadi (National Treasury) -who are beneficiaries of the rapprochement between Ruto and Raila post the Gen-Z anti-government protests - among others, want the party to back Ruto in 2027.

They have in the recent past emerged as fervent defenders of the party’s collaboration with President Ruto’s UDA.

In August, UDA and ODM signed a 10-point MOU that anchored their relationship under the broad-based government until 2027. This faction, however, seeks to extend this engagement beyond the General Election.

They argue they are borrowing a page from Raila’s political power play book on deal-making and are insistent they are walking a path showed to them by the late enigma.

Governor Arati, who was also present in Mombasa for the youth league convention, did not mince his words with regards to 2027.

 “If anyone among us is dissenting from Raila’s direction, I urge you to slow down. ODM is ours with all 15 million members. It is a democratic party. If you have a different opinion, speak out,” he said.

“But the party’s stance is that in 2027, we will form the government. We have been in opposition for a long time…we will work with like-minded people.”

Previously, he has called on Ruto to jump ship and rejoin ODM with a promise to make him flagbearer.

“…I want to urge him today, Mheshimiwa Ruto, you were a founding member of ODM. How I wish that you would come back to your former party. If you came back to ODM, then we would have you as our flagbearer. If you came back, we would fulfill the promise Baba had a vision for,” stated Arati.

Joho, in a veiled attack against those with opposing ODM’s alliance with UDA post 2027 warned against “self-appointed spokespersons” noting that such voices could create confusion within the movement.

“Not everybody should be a spokesman. We have leaders who can speak,” he reiterated. 

Proponents within the UDA party now argue that in order for Ruto to secure a second term, he must ensure the unity of ODM, a party they predict will form a coalition pact with the ruling party in the next elections.

“I believe from our framework; we are focusing on a winning formula. If there is something our president needs to hold together at any cost, it is the unity of the ODM party. We need to ensure the ODM party remains united,” said Soy MP David Kiplagat.

Main table

Advocate and Political analyst Joshua Odhiambo believes the party ought to support Ruto until 2032.

“ As the Luo Nation, we finally sit at the table - not on the streets. So if James Orengo wants to return to protests, he’s free to resign and carry Uhuru, Matiang’i, Kalonzo and Gachagua to the streets with him. But count us out. We’re done dying for politicians who never show up to the funeral,” stated Odhiambo.

“For once, our people are in Cabinet, in PS offices, in government boards, in real decision-making. President William Samoei Ruto opened that door - and we walked in with dignity.

No one will drag us back to stones and slogans to save fading political careers,” he added.

And now, with President Ruto angling to inherit Raila’s support base, he must make the decision on whether to fan the fall out within ODM or act as a mediator and potentially reap the attendant political benefits.