Why state machinery are camping in Malava and Mbeere

Campaigns for the November 27 by-elections have this week entered homestretch and both the Kenya Kwanza and united opposition are preparing for a grueling battle to determine their political might.

Although the by-elections are being held in several areas across the country, Mbeere North and Malava have seemingly turned out to not only a high stakes game but also a litmus test for the shifting political allegiance.

Amid intense campaigns, Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has urged political parties and candidates to conduct peaceful processes and strictly adhere to their schedules and electoral code of conduct.

“Paragraph 7(a)(iv) of the Electoral Code of Conduct empowers the commission to prohibit a political party or candidate from campaigning during the period in cases where violations or threats to peace and order are evident. Any breach shall attract sanctions as prescribed in the available legislative framework,” the IEBC has warned.

In Mbeere North, for instance, the campaigns have intensified amid accusations that the ruling party, United Democratic Alliance, is using state machinery in favour of its candidate, Leonard Muriuki.

The united opposition has resolved to support one candidate running on Democratic Party (DP) ticket, Newton Kariuki and so is the case for other areas with by-elections, with the team now jointly on the ground.

Former Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua led other opposition leaders in accusing the President William Ruto and Embu Governor, Cecily Mbarire of intimidation but they declared a political duel.

“For the next nine days, I am on the ground, listening and engaging the people of Mbeere North. We will teach them a lesson on November 27,” he said yesterday.

On the other hand, the former Mp who was appointed to the Cabinet, Geoffrey Ruku has said that Gachagua’s party has no candidate in Mbeere North and wondered why he did not field one, if he is powerful as he has been stating.

“If he (Gachagua) is a very powerful politician as he purports to be, how come he did not field a candidate in his own party, we have many professionals in Mbeere North who are well trained and be good Mps, how come he was unable to attract a single one?” Ruku said in a televised interview.

He defended his involvement in campaigns saying they are allowed to champion interests of a political party insisting that he has all the legal provisions to campaign and to oppose other parties.

The stakes are high, and reports indicate that millions of shillings are being spent daily on campaign trail while others are having a rough time because they can almost not match up.

A section of senior government officials has also been seen spending a lot of time campaigning for candidates on the Kenya Kwanza side, week after week. Nothing has been left to chance.

But according to political analyst Macharia Munene, there's nothing strange about having state machinery deployed to intensify campaigns, it has been witnessed often before.

He explains that the State always tries to ensure it does not fall while the challengers do their best to make the state look ‘bad’ so ‘these are normal campaigns’.

“There's nothing that is very strange. So what you are seeing is normal. But sometimes the by-elections have their own meaning other than the official. Officially, it is just some candidates are competing to see who gets the job that's available,” Prof Munene told The Standard.

“Some of them spend a lot of money and when they lose, some almost go crazy because they have used a lot of things but the others, even if they lose, it's a kind of pocket money because they are so rich, there is a big difference there,” he adds.

He explains that the bigger symbolism of by-election is increasing formation of political following and right now, Ruto as President appear to be having problems nationally so it is in his interest that candidates in his party to appear to do well.

“Even if they do not capture everything, they should not lose everything. Now the other side wants to do as well as possible, capture as many seats and then therefore show their strength in that regard. So there is that competition, in preparation for 2027,” he explained.

Munene said the impact is going to be huge for whoever loses in this by-elections and that is why they are both working very hard to ensure they do not lose, with the President having more at stake than the opposition.

Dismas Mokua, a political analyst, says the by- elections can be used to inform and influence the 2027 general elections, citing a previous scenario, where former President Uhuru Kenyatta used that to pronounce his arrival in the national political space and make The National Alliance (TNA) the party of choice in his strongholds.

“⁠The party whose candidates win during the by elections will became an attractive proposition. 2027 candidates will beat a path to secure tickets from such a party. A party whose candidates does not win may witness a dash to the exit and that is why political parties are going the extra mile to win during the by elections,” he said.

He says that by elections results may form rich content for propaganda, misinformation and disinformation.

⁠At the same time, he says Kenyan voters may have immunised themselves from the impact of State machinery during campaigns as demonstrated during the 2027 general elections and it is only useful under the radar to support the candidate logistics.

“Overt use of state machinery can potentially have unintended consequences. Most voters will want to exercise agency without fear nor intimidation. Obvious and brazen nudges using State machinery can compromise electoral victory,” he explained.

According to Mokua, voting patterns will inter alia be influenced by candidates’ capacity and competence, likability and unique selling proposition, sponsoring party and electoral mood.

It is also the case that campaign logistics and capacity to turn out the vote are key success factors.

“The 2027 permutations and combinations will also influence voting patterns. The voting patterns will be aligned to parties that may ultimately produce presidential candidates,” he says.

With analyst Prof Gitile Naituli saying that millions of shillings are reportedly being spend a day but in the case of Mbeere North, it may not be easy to ‘buy’ the people.

“In Embu, things could be different… during the Mau Mau war there were no traitors in Embu unlike in some places in Mt Kenya and so is the case this time. State machinery may not alter the voting patterns there,” he said.

Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) leader, Eugene Wamalwa yesterday said that anyone who has been doubting their resolve the by-elections will show the real picture, adding that campaigns are well coordinated focused on winning.

“Anyone who has been doubting our resolve, we have shown, through these by-elections that we are truly the united opposition of Kenya and the government in waiting. We have agreed to field one candidate in the by-elections and if we have succeeded in this, we will do the same for presidential candidate,” he said.