Some people betrayed Raila but Kalonzo isn't one of them

Whose betrayal cut the deepest? This seems to be a raging political debate. In a bid to woo the late Raila Odinga’s constituency, ‘broad-based’ seems keen to exploit the feeling amongst Raila supporters to the effect that Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka betrayed Raila.

I wish them good luck with that. However, they must remember the truism that those who live in glass houses should never throw stones.

The primary question is, who between President William Ruto and Kalonzo betrayed Raila more? I think that had Ruto stuck with Raila in 2013, the 2013 elections would have been called in favour of Raila.

Rumour mills had it that in 2017, Uhuru was ready to pack and go and that whoever prevailed upon him not to was someone who had a direct interest in the 2027 elections. Oburu Odinga said that the 2022 elections were Raila’s to lose. But some burglars crept in at night and stole the victory.

If any team will win over Raila’s constituency, I don’t think it will be based on who betrayed Raila less. As Wafula Buke observed, Raila’s funeral was led by people who betrayed him in life. Those who had the most prominent role at his graveside were people who represented everything he fought against.

In old age, Raila might have been more forgiving, which many might have erroneously construed as being compromised. As a consequence, two ODM factions have emerged. The Hawks and the Doves. The hawks believe that there’s nothing to mollycoddle Ruto for.

Their bellicose stance may be inspired by the belief that the President’s approval ratings continue to tank every time they show signs of improving. The Doves, on the other hand, think that the ODM constituency is battle-fatigued and should recharge before going back to battle.

Legacy of reforms

The emerging reality is that the Hawks are aligned or appear at ease with Kalonzo. While the Doves appear at peace with Ruto. At the ODM’s 20th anniversary, Winnie Odinga appeared to throw her weight with the Hawks, willing to continue agitating for change. Two things quickly come into play. The government’s ability to present itself as a credible ally of the people, and which of the two sides would genuinely sustain the legacy of reforms that Raila stood for.

The government has consistently lost the propaganda war. With the credibility of the government in tatters, the people are unable to trust it as a credible ally. The government does not help them to talk about who betrayed Raila, for it has to deal daily with the accusing finger of 55 million Kenyans who feel betrayed and abandoned.

Kalonzo has spent the last 15 years trying to make Raila president. In all those attempts, the people accusing Kalonzo of betraying Raila were actively working to sabotage Raila. The last act of sabotage and betrayal was the attempt on Raila’s life in 2023 during the protests over the high cost of living.

Kalonzo is an imperfect man. He is seen in many quarters as a man without resources to mount a serious campaign. But this is also an indicator that he is less corrupt in comparison to many politicians. If he can commit to having a government that will have zero tolerance for corruption, he might just be Ruto’s headache. For those talking about betrayal, it’s a case of the camel laughing at a cow for having a hump. We wait to see who will carry the day in ODM between the Hawks and the Doves.