2026 economic data shows growth comes from reforms, not speeches

The formal economic numbers for the 2025 fiscal year are now out. By now, most Kenyans who follow economic trends know the figures do not favour President Ruto.

Mainstream media has so far done a commendable job highlighting the gap between what the President has been saying in his speeches and the actual situation on the ground.

As this column has consistently argued, unpacking and drawing meaning from official economic data is a painstaking process. It will take not just months but years to fully analyse and interpret the statistics in the 2026 Economic Survey report. This is because economists do not rely on single data points when making their assessments.

Credible analysis lies in identifying trends and patterns to reveal the story behind any indicator of interest. For instance, to understand what is happening to household incomes in Kenya, it would be misleading to rely solely on the figures presented in the 2025 report. This is why key indicators in the survey are tracked over a five-year period, with 2025 serving only as the most recent data point in the series.

This brings us to the central question on the minds of many Kenyans this week: How has President Ruto performed based on the economic indicators in the 2026 report?

By June 2026, President Ruto will have been at the helm of the economy for four years, based on government fiscal cycles. This is the body of economic data voters will have by the time they head to the ballot on Tuesday, August 10, 2027. With the 2026 Economic Survey report, it is now possible to analyse three of those four years, pending the next report expected in April or May next year.

Admittedly, three years is still a short window to judge the full scope of the President’s performance. However, it is sufficient to offer meaningful insight into the trajectory of his administration. Key questions arise: Has he reversed the economic decline witnessed over the ten years of his predecessor, as promised? And do the indicators align with the optimistic narrative often presented in official speeches?

To be fair to the President, he inherited an economy that had clearly been mismanaged and heavily plundered by the preceding administration. However, he also bears a share of responsibility, having served as Deputy President for ten years. Critics argue that, in that role, he was a key architect of the structures that eroded the economic recovery momentum achieved during the Mwai Kibaki era, following the power-sharing arrangement with his former boss, Uhuru Kenyatta. A significant number of Cabinet members and Principal Secretaries at the time were his nominees.

Against this backdrop, it would take more than simply assuming the presidency to deliver far-reaching economic reforms, particularly those aimed at improving individual, household and broader macroeconomic welfare. Even before examining the hard data, there is ample public evidence suggesting that his leadership style and key appointments were not geared towards radical change.

As President, he has on several occasions pointed to incompetence among both past and current members of his Cabinet.

Yet, it took mounting public pressure that threatened his hold on power to trigger changes. Even then, the reshuffles appeared less focused on service delivery and more on political survival under a broad-based arrangement.

Public plunder has not only continued unabated but may well have worsened compared to the previous administration, with little visible commitment from the top to rein it in. At least the former regime showed some effort through the occasional “kamata kamata” crackdowns, however inconsistent they may have been.

Structurally defective

Turning to the 2026 economic data, there is little evidence of structural change in the country’s economic architecture under President Ruto. The economy remains heavily skewed, with the formal sector accounting for about 17 per cent against 83 per cent in the informal space.

Key initiatives under the Bottom-up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA)—such as the Hustler Fund, the affordable housing programme and, more recently, Nyota—appear to entrench rather than reverse informality.

This helps explain the persistent slowdown in economic growth and the decline in real wages over the past three years of his administration. Although the economy expanded by Sh4.1 trillion in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2022 and 2025, growth has weakened once inflation is factored in, slipping from 4.9 per cent to 4.6 per cent over the period, save for a temporary rebound to 5.7 per cent in 2023.

This broader lack of economic stimulus is reflected in stagnation or only marginal growth across key sectors. For instance, agriculture—still the backbone of the economy—has seen its contribution to GDP inch up slightly from 21 to 23.2 per cent between 2021 and 2025. Transport and storage, the second-largest contributor, has declined from a peak of 13.2 per cent in 2022 to 11.8 per cent in 2025

Future growth

Manufacturing, a central pillar of the Vision 2030 industrialisation agenda, continues on a downward path, falling from 7.7 per cent in 2022 to 7.1 per cent in 2025. This is a stark contrast to 2013, when it accounted for about 13 per cent of GDP at the end of President Kibaki’s tenure.

Meanwhile, service sectors that John Mbadi has identified as future growth drivers, including information and communication, financial and insurance activities, professional and technical services, as well as accommodation and food services, have largely remained flat between 2021 and 2025.

Moreover, most of these sectors remain relatively small, each contributing less than 2.5 per cent of GDP, with the exception of finance and insurance, which has averaged 7.72 per cent over the five-year period. This raises a fundamental question: How can sectors that are both small in size and stagnant over time realistically drive future growth?

This is not to suggest that these sectors cannot become strategic engines of growth. However, unlocking their potential will require more than polished speeches. It calls for deliberate policy support and a stable operating environment.

In reality, many of the recent tax measures—widely seen as burdensome—have disproportionately targeted these service sectors, stifling activity before they have fully taken root in the economy. This approach risks undermining the very industries being positioned as future drivers of growth.

However, the most pressing question for the country lies in revenue collection and expenditure. According to the 2026 report, President Ruto’s administration has collected Sh8.9 trillion in ordinary revenue and grants, while spending Sh12 trillion between June 2022 and June 2025.

In just three years, this revenue is about 3.2 times what Mwai Kibaki’s administration collected—Sh2.796 trillion over 10.25 years. It also surpasses the Sh8.562 trillion raised during Uhuru Kenyatta’s decade in office.

Over the same period, President Ruto has borrowed more than three times Kibaki’s net borrowing of Sh1.2 trillion.

On expenditure, the trend is similar. The Sh12 trillion spent in three years is about 3.4 times Kibaki’s Sh3.452 trillion over 10.25 years, and exceeds Kenyatta’s Sh10.296 trillion over ten years.

The fundamental question, then, remains: Where have these trillions gone, and what tangible difference have they made in the life of the ordinary mwananchi?